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Overnight News and Daily Equity Trading Risk Limits

Ahoniemi, K., Fuertes, A. and Olmo, J. (2016). Overnight News and Daily Equity Trading Risk Limits. Journal of Financial Econometrics, 14(3), pp. 525-551. doi: 10.1093/jjfinec/nbu032

Abstract

This paper proposes a new bivariate modeling approach for setting daily equity-trading risk limits using high-frequency data. We construct one-day-ahead Value-at-Risk (VaR) forecasts by taking into account the different dynamics of the overnight and daytime return processes and their covariance. The covariance is motivated by market microstructure effects such as price staleness and news spillover. Among the competitors we include a simpler bivariate model where the overnight return is redefined by moving the open price further into the trading day, and a univariate model based on the close-to-close return and an overnight-adjusted realized volatility. We illustrate the different approaches using data on the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 indices. The evidence in favour of modeling the covariance is more convincing for the latter index due to the lower trading volumes and, relatedly, the less efficient price discovery at market open for small-cap stocks.

Publication Type: Article
Additional Information: This is a pre-copyedited, author-produced PDF of an article accepted for publication in Journal of Financial Econometrics, following peer review. The version of record Ahoniemi, K., Fuertes, A. & Olmo, J. (2015). Overnight News and Daily Equity Trading Risk Limits. Journal of Financial Econometrics, 14(3), pp. 525-551. is available online at: http://dx.doi.org/0.1093/jjfinec/nbu032
Publisher Keywords: Overnight; Price discovery; Realized volatility; Risk management; Value-at-Risk
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HG Finance
Departments: Cass Business School > Finance
URI: http://openaccess.city.ac.uk/id/eprint/12655
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