The Expectation Hypothesis of the Term Structure of Very Short-Term Rates: Statistical Tests and Economic Value

Corte, P. D., Sarno, L. & Thornton, D. (2008). The Expectation Hypothesis of the Term Structure of Very Short-Term Rates: Statistical Tests and Economic Value. Journal of Financial Economics, 89(1), pp. 158-174. doi: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2007.08.002

[img]
Preview
Text - Accepted Version
Available under License : See the attached licence file.

Download (376kB) | Preview
[img]
Preview
Text (Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International Licence) - Other
Download (201kB) | Preview

Abstract

This paper reexamines the validity of the expectation hypothesis (EH) of the term structure of US repo rates ranging in maturity from overnight to 3 months. We extend the work of Longstaff [2000b. The term structure of very short term rates: new evidence for the expectations hypothesis. Journal of Financial Economics 58, 397–415] in two directions: (1) we implement statistical tests designed to increase test power in this context; (2) more important, we assess the economic value of departures from the EH based on criteria of profitability and economic significance in the context of a simple trading strategy. The EH is rejected throughout the term structure examined on the basis of the statistical tests. However, the results of our economic analysis are favorable to the EH, suggesting that the statistical rejections of the EH in the repo market are economically insignificant.

Item Type: Article
Additional Information: © 2008, Elsevier. Licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
Uncontrolled Keywords: Expectation hypothesis; Term structure of interest rates; Vector autoregression; Economic value
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HA Statistics
H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory
Divisions: Cass Business School > Faculty of Finance
URI: http://openaccess.city.ac.uk/id/eprint/13623

Actions (login required)

View Item View Item

Downloads

Downloads per month over past year

View more statistics