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Macro-expectations, aggregate uncertainty, and expected term premia

Dick, C. D., Schmeling, M. and Schrimpf, A. (2013). Macro-expectations, aggregate uncertainty, and expected term premia. European Economic Review, 58, pp. 58-80. doi: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2012.11.005

Abstract

Based on expectations data from the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF), we construct a real-time proxy for expected term premium changes of US long-term Treasury bonds. We then investigate the economic drivers of these subjective term premium expectations at the level of individual forecasters. Our results indicate that forecasters' term premium expectations are driven by expected macroeconomic conditions as well as the uncertainty of market participants about future output and inflation. An aggregate measure of forecasters' term premium expectations has predictive power for actual bond excess returns over horizons of up to one year.

Publication Type: Article
Additional Information: © 2012 Elsevier. Licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HG Finance
Departments: Cass Business School
URI: http://openaccess.city.ac.uk/id/eprint/14117
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