A simple benchmark for mesothelioma projection for Great Britain

Martinez-Miranda, M. D., Nielsen, B. & Nielsen, J. P. (2016). A simple benchmark for mesothelioma projection for Great Britain. Occupational and Environmental Medicine, 73, pp. 561-563. doi: 10.1136/oemed-2015-103303

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Abstract

Background: It is of considerable interest to forecast the future burden of mesothelioma mortality. Data on deaths are available, whereas no measure of asbestos exposure is available.

Methods: We compare two Poisson models: a response-only model with an age-cohort specification and a multinomial model with epidemiologically motivated frequencies.

Results: The response-only model has 5% higher peak mortality than the dose-response model. The former performs slightly better in out-of-sample comparison.

Conclusion: Mortality is predicted to peak at about 2100 deaths around 2017 among males in cohorts until 1966 and below 90 years of age. The response-only model is a simple benchmark that forecasts just as well as more complicated models.

Item Type: Article
Additional Information: Copyright BMJ Publishing Group, 2016
Subjects: R Medicine > RA Public aspects of medicine
Divisions: Cass Business School > Faculty of Actuarial Science & Insurance
URI: http://openaccess.city.ac.uk/id/eprint/14520

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