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Evaluating the accuracy of value-at-risk forecasts: New multilevel tests

Leccadito, A, Boffelli, S and Urga, G. (2014). Evaluating the accuracy of value-at-risk forecasts: New multilevel tests. International Journal Of Forecasting, 30(2), doi: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2013.07.014

Abstract

We propose independence and conditional coverage tests aimed at evaluating the accuracy of Value-at-Risk (VaR) forecasts from the same model at different confidence levels. The proposed procedures are multilevel tests, i.e. joint tests of several quantiles corresponding to different confidence levels. In a comprehensive Monte Carlo exercise, we document the superiority of the proposed tests with respect to existing multilevel tests. In an empirical application, we illustrate the implementation of the tests using several VaR models and daily data for 15 MSCI world indices.

Publication Type: Article
Additional Information: © 2014, Elsevier. Licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
Publisher Keywords: Risk management; Value-at-risk; Backtesting; Conditional and unconditional coverage tests; Monte Carlo
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HG Finance
Departments: Cass Business School > Finance
Related URLs:
URI: http://openaccess.city.ac.uk/id/eprint/14538
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