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Robust bounds for forward start options

Hobson, D.E. and Neuberger, A. (2012). Robust bounds for forward start options. Mathematical Finance, 22(1), pp. 31-56. doi: 10.1111/j.1467-9965.2010.00473.x

Abstract

We consider the problem of finding a model-free uper bound on the price of a forward-start straddle with payoff |FT2 −FT1 |. The bound depends on the prices of vanilla call and put options with maturities T1 and T2, but does not rely on any modelling assumptions concerning the dynamics of the underlying. The bound can be enforced by a super-replicating strategy involving puts, calls and a forward transaction. We find an upper bound, and a model which is consistent with T1 and T2 vanilla option prices for which the model-based price of the straddle is equal to the upper bound. This proves that the bound is best possible. For lognormal marginals we show that the upper bound is at most 30% higher than the Black-Scholes price. The problem can be recast as finding the solution to a Skorokhod embedding problem with non-trivial initial law so as to maximise E|Bτ − B0|.

Publication Type: Article
Additional Information: This is the peer reviewed version of the following article: Hobson, D. and Neuberger, A. (2012), ROBUST BOUNDS FOR FORWARD START OPTIONS. Mathematical Finance, 22: 31–56., which has been published in final form at http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9965.2010.00473.x. This article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance with Wiley Terms and Conditions for Self-Archiving.
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HG Finance
Q Science > QA Mathematics
Departments: Cass Business School > Finance
URI: http://openaccess.city.ac.uk/id/eprint/15211
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