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Is idiosyncratic volatility priced in commodity futures markets?

Fernandez-Perez, A, Fuertes, A-M and Miffre, J (2016). Is idiosyncratic volatility priced in commodity futures markets?. International Review of Financial Analysis, 46, pp. 219-226. doi: 10.1016/j.irfa.2016.06.002

Abstract

This article investigates the relationship between expected returns and past idiosyncratic volatility in commodity futures markets. Measuring the idiosyncratic volatility of 27 commodity futures contracts with traditional pricing models that fail to account for backwardation and contango leads to the puzzling finding that idiosyncratic volatility is significantly negatively priced cross-sectionally. However, idiosyncratic volatility is not priced when the phases of backwardation and contango are suitably factored in the pricing model. A time-series portfolio analysis similarly suggests that failing to recognize the fundamental risk associated with the inexorable phases of backwardation and contango leads to overstated profitability of the idiosyncratic volatility mimicking portfolios.

Publication Type: Article
Additional Information: © 2016, Elsevier. Licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
Publisher Keywords: Commodity futures; Idiosyncratic volatility; Backwardation; Contango
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HG Finance
Departments: Cass Business School > Finance
URI: http://openaccess.city.ac.uk/id/eprint/15720
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