#Swineflu: Twitter Predicts Swine Flu Outbreak in 2009

Szomszor, M. N., Kostkova, P. & de Quincey, E. (2012). #Swineflu: Twitter Predicts Swine Flu Outbreak in 2009. Paper presented at the 3rd International ICST Conference on Electronic Healthcare for the 21st Century (eHEALTH2010), 13 - 15 Dec 2010, Casablanca, Morocco.

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Early warning systems for the identification and tracking of infections disease outbreaks have become an important tool in the field of epidemiology. While government lead initiatives to increase the sharing of surveillance data have improved early detection and control, along with advanced web monitoring and analytics services, the recent swine flu outbreak of 2009 demonstrated the important role social media has and the wealth of data it exposes. In this paper, we present an investigation into Twitter, using around 3 Million tweets gathered between May and December 2009, as a possible source of surveillance data and its feasibility to serve as an early warning system. By performing simple filtering and normalization, we demonstrate that Twitter can serve as a self-reporting tool, and hence, provide indications of increased infection spreading. Our initial findings indicate that Twitter can detect such events up to one week before conventional GP reported surveillance data.

Item Type: Conference or Workshop Item (Paper)
Uncontrolled Keywords: Epidemic Intelligence, Twitter, H1N1, Pandemic Flu
Subjects: R Medicine > RA Public aspects of medicine
Z Bibliography. Library Science. Information Resources > Z665 Library Science. Information Science
Divisions: School of Health Sciences > Healthcare Research Unit
URI: http://openaccess.city.ac.uk/id/eprint/1635

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