On reconciling macro and micro energy transport forecasts for strategic decision making in the tanker industry

Abouarghoub, W., Nomikos, N. & Petropoulos, F. (2017). On reconciling macro and micro energy transport forecasts for strategic decision making in the tanker industry. Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, doi: 10.1016/j.tre.2017.10.012.

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Abstract

We propose the use of hierarchical structures for forecasting freight earnings. Hierarchical time series approaches are applied and contrasted in the dry-bulk and tanker markets in order to identify the most suitable strategy for forecasting freight rates. We argue that decision making for shipping practitioners should be based on forecasts of freight earnings at different hierarchical levels. In other words, different strategic shipping decisions such as operations management, choice of freight charter contract and type of investment should be matched with the appropriate level of forecasts of freight earnings that are aggregated at different macro-levels: operating route, vessel size and type of trade, and for different forecasting horizons: short-, medium- and long-run.

Item Type: Article
Additional Information: © 2017, Elsevier. This manuscript version is made available under the CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 license http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
Uncontrolled Keywords: forecasting, freight revenues, shipping energy, freight earnings, hierarchical aggregation
Divisions: Cass Business School > Faculty of Finance
URI: http://openaccess.city.ac.uk/id/eprint/18430

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