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Explaining price differences between physical and derivative freight contracts

Alizadeh-Masoodian, A. & Adland, R. (2018). Explaining price differences between physical and derivative freight contracts. Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review,

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Abstract

Physical time-charters (TC) and Forward Freight Agreements (FFAs) represent two hedging approaches that differ in terms of risks and physical access to transportation. We investigate the determinants of the time-varying TC-FFA freight rate differential in the dry bulk market. We find that TC and FFA prices are co-integrated but TC rates are generally priced higher than FFAs. The differential is explained by the level and slope of the term structure, a measure of economic ‘stress’ as well as vessel specifications and contractual terms. Finally, the TC-FFA differential is related to default risk premium and the potential convenience yield.

Publication Type: Article
Additional Information: © 2018 Elsevier. This manuscript version is made available under the CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 license http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
Publisher Keywords: FFAs, time-charter, basis risk, convenience yield, default risk.
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HG Finance
Departments: Cass Business School > Finance
URI: http://openaccess.city.ac.uk/id/eprint/20101

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