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Structural Combination of Seasonal Exponential Smoothing Forecasts Applied to Load Forecasting

Rendon-Sanchez, J. F. and de Menezes, L. M. ORCID: 0000-0001-9155-5850 (2018). Structural Combination of Seasonal Exponential Smoothing Forecasts Applied to Load Forecasting. European Journal of Operational Research, doi: 10.1016/j.ejor.2018.12.013

Abstract

This article draws from research on ensembles in computational intelligence to propose structural combinations of forecasts, which are point forecast combinations that are based on information from the parameters of the individual models that generated the forecasts. Two types of structural combination are proposed which use seasonal exponential smoothing as base models, and are applied to forecast short-term electricity demand. Although forecasting performance may depend on how ensembles are generated, results show that the proposed combinations can outperform competitive benchmarks. The methods can be used to forecast other seasonal data and be extended to different types of forecasting models.

Publication Type: Article
Additional Information: © 2018. This manuscript version is made available under the CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 license http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
Publisher Keywords: Forecasting, combination of forecasts, electricity demand/load forecasting, ensembles, exponential smoothing methods
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor > HD28 Management. Industrial Management
Departments: Cass Business School > Management
URI: http://openaccess.city.ac.uk/id/eprint/21136
[img] Text - Accepted Version
This document is not freely accessible until 8 December 2020 due to copyright restrictions.

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