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Currency regimes and the carry trade

Marsh, I. W., Cen, J., Accominotti, O. and Chambers, D. (2019). Currency regimes and the carry trade. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis,

Abstract

This study exploits a new long-run data set of daily bid and offered exchange rates in spot and forward markets from 1919 to the present to analyze carry returns in fixed and floating currency regimes. We first find that outsized carry returns occur exclusively in the floating regime, being zero in the fixed regime. Second, we show that fixed-to-floating regime shifts are associated with negative returns to a carry strategy implemented only on floating currencies, robust to the inclusion of volatility risks. These shifts are typically characterized by global flight-to-safety events that represent bad times for carry traders.

Publication Type: Article
Additional Information: This article is to be published in a revised form in Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis http://journals.cambridge.org/action/displayJournal?jid=JFQ. This version is free to view and download for private research and study only. Not for re-distribution, re-sale or use in derivative works. © Michael G. Foster School of Business, University of Washington 2019.
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HG Finance
Departments: Cass Business School > Finance
URI: http://openaccess.city.ac.uk/id/eprint/21718
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