On forecasting daily stock volatility: The role of intraday information and market conditions

Fuertes, A., Izzeldin, M. & Kalotychou, E. (2009). On forecasting daily stock volatility: The role of intraday information and market conditions. International Journal of Forecasting, 25(2), pp. 259-281. doi: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2009.01.006

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Abstract

Several recent studies advocate the use of nonparametric estimators of daily price variability that exploit intraday information. This paper compares four such estimators, realised volatility, realised range, realised power variation and realised bipower variation, by examining their in-sample distributional properties and out-of-sample forecast ranking when the object of interest is the conventional conditional variance. The analysis is based on a 7-year sample of transaction prices for 14 NYSE stocks. The forecast race is conducted in a GARCH framework and relies on several loss functions. The realized range fares relatively well in the in-sample fit analysis, for instance, regarding the extent to which it brings normality in returns. However, overall the realised power variation provides the most accurate 1-day-ahead forecasts. Forecast combination of all four intraday measures produces the smallest forecast errors in about half of the sampled stocks. A market conditions analysis reveals that the additional use of intraday data on day t-1 to forecast volatility on day t is most advantageous when day t is a low volume or an up-market day. These results have implications for option pricing, asset allocation and value-at-risk.

Item Type: Article
Additional Information: NOTICE: this is the author’s version of a work that was accepted for publication in International Journal of Forecasting. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. A definitive version was subsequently published in International Journal of Forecasting Volume 25, Issue 2, April–June 2009, Pages 259–281, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2009.01.006.
Uncontrolled Keywords: Conditional variance, Realised volatility, Nonparametric estimators, Intraday prices, Superior predictive ability
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HG Finance
Divisions: Cass Business School > Faculty of Finance
URI: http://openaccess.city.ac.uk/id/eprint/6076

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