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A semiparametric panel model for unbalanced data with application to climate change in the United Kingdom

Atak, A., Linton, O. and Xiao, Z. (2011). A semiparametric panel model for unbalanced data with application to climate change in the United Kingdom. Journal of Econometrics, 164(1), pp. 92-115. doi: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2011.02.008

Abstract

This paper is concerned with developing a semiparametric panel model to explain the trend in UK temperatures and other weather outcomes over the last century. We work with the monthly averaged maximum and minimum temperatures observed at the twenty six Meteorological Office stations. The data is an unbalanced panel. We allow the trend to evolve in a nonparametric way so that we obtain a fuller picture of the evolution of common temperature in the medium timescale. Profile likelihood estimators (PLE) are proposed and their statistical properties are studied. The proposed PLE has improved asymptotic property comparing the sequential two-step estimators. Finally, forecasting based on the proposed model is studied.

Publication Type: Article
Additional Information: © 2011, Elsevier. Licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
Publisher Keywords: Global warming; Kernel estimation; Semiparametric; Trend analysis
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor
Q Science > QC Physics
Departments: School of Arts & Social Sciences > Economics
URI: http://openaccess.city.ac.uk/id/eprint/7631
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