Strigini, L. and Wright, D. (2014). Bounds on survival probability given mean probability of failure per demand; And the paradoxical advantages of uncertainty. Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 128, pp. 6683. doi: 10.1016/j.ress.2014.02.004
Abstract
When deciding whether to accept into service a new safetycritical system, or choosing between alternative systems, uncertainty about the parameters that affect future failure probability may be a major problem. This uncertainty can be extreme if there is the possibility of unknown design errors (e.g. in software), or wide variation between nominally equivalent components.
We study the effect of parameter uncertainty on future reliability (survival probability), for systems required to have low risk of even only one failure or accident over the long term (e.g. their whole operational lifetime) and characterised by a single reliability parameter (e.g. probability of failure per demand  pfd). A complete mathematical treatment requires stating a probability distribution for any parameter with uncertain value. This is hard, so calculations are often performed using point estimates, like the expected value.
We investigate conditions under which such simplified descriptions yield reliability values that are sure to be pessimistic (or optimistic) bounds for a prediction based on the true distribution. Two important observations are: (i) using the expected value of the reliability parameter as its true value guarantees a pessimistic estimate of reliability, a useful property in most safetyrelated decisions; (ii) with a given expected pfd, broader distributions (in a formally defined meaning of "broader"), that is, systems that are a priori "less predictable", lower the risk of failures or accidents.
Result (i) justifies the simplification of using a mean in reliability modelling; we discuss within which scope this justification applies, and explore related scenarios, e.g. how things improve if we can test the system before operation. Result (ii) offers more flexible ways of bounding reliability predictions, but also has important, often counterintuitive implications for decision making in various areas, like selection of components, project management, and product acceptance or licensing. For instance, in regulatory decision making dilemmas may arise in which the goal of minimising risk runs counter to other commonly held priorities, like predictability of risk; in safety assessment using expert opinion, the commonly recognised risk of experts being "overconfident" may be less dangerous than their being underconfident.
Publication Type:  Article 

Additional Information:  Originally CSR Technical Report http://openaccess.city.ac.uk/3221/ © 2014, Elsevier. Licensed under the Creative Commons AttributionNonCommercialNoDerivatives 4.0 International http://creativecommons.org/licenses/byncnd/4.0/ 
Publisher Keywords:  Safety critical systems; Software reliability; Parameter uncertainty; Epistemic uncertainty; System acceptance; Regulatory decision making 
Subjects:  Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA75 Electronic computers. Computer science 
Departments:  School of Mathematics, Computer Science & Engineering > Computer Science > Software Reliability 
URI:  http://openaccess.city.ac.uk/id/eprint/13809 

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