City Research Online

Abstract

This video introduces and provides evidence to support the Proportionality Hypothesis which states that Covid-19 infection fatality rates are approximately proportional to all cause death rates by age and subgroup (e.g., socio-economic class). This video also shows that vaccination played a very significant role in preventing people infected with Covid-19 from needing to be hospitalised, since it reduced the average severity of an infection. Death rates involving Covid-19 were very significantly lower for people in the fully vaccinated group compared to the unvaccinated group. During the pandemic, death rates from other causes were in some cases reduced (e.g., flu and pneumonia), in some cases unchanged (e.g., lung cancer) and in some cases elevated (e.g., heart disease). This video discusses the implications of these findings both for potential adjustments to extrapolative mortality models which allow for future pandemics in a way that is consistent with the Proportionality Hypothesis and for insurance companies in terms of both modelling extreme scenarios and the design of mortality catastrophe bonds.

Publication Type:	Video
Additional Information:	© 2026, the author. This video was produced by the MDPI Academic Video Service. Content is available under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license; additional terms may apply.
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HC Economic History and Conditions H Social Sciences > HN Social history and conditions. Social problems. Social reform Q Science > QR Microbiology > QR180 Immunology R Medicine > RA Public aspects of medicine > RA0421 Public health. Hygiene. Preventive Medicine
Departments:	Bayes Business School Bayes Business School > Faculty of Finance
SWORD Depositor:	Symplectic Administrator

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