City Research Online

Multinational development and validation of an early prediction model for delirium in ICU patients

Wassenaar, A., van den Boogaard, M., van Achterberg, T. , Slooter, A. J. C., Kuiper, M. A., Hoogendoorn, M. E., Simons, K. S., Maseda, E., Pinto, N., Jones, C., Luetz, A., Schandl, A., Verbrugghe, W., Aitken, L. M., van Haren, F. M. P., Donders, A. R. T., Schoonhoven, L. & Pickkers, P. (2015). Multinational development and validation of an early prediction model for delirium in ICU patients. Intensive Care Medicine, 41(6), pp. 1048-1056. doi: 10.1007/s00134-015-3777-2


Delirium incidence in intensive care unit (ICU) patients is high and associated with poor outcome. Identification of high-risk patients may facilitate its prevention.

To develop and validate a model based on data available at ICU admission to predict delirium development during a patient’s complete ICU stay and to determine the predictive value of this model in relation to the time of delirium development.

Prospective cohort study in 13 ICUs from seven countries. Multiple logistic regression analysis was used to develop the early prediction (E-PRE-DELIRIC) model on data of the first two-thirds and validated on data of the last one-third of the patients from every participating ICU.

In total, 2914 patients were included. Delirium incidence was 23.6 %. The E-PRE-DELIRIC model consists of nine predictors assessed at ICU admission: age, history of cognitive impairment, history of alcohol abuse, blood urea nitrogen, admission category, urgent admission, mean arterial blood pressure, use of corticosteroids, and respiratory failure. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) was 0.76 [95 % confidence interval (CI) 0.73–0.77] in the development dataset and 0.75 (95 % CI 0.71–0.79) in the validation dataset. The model was well calibrated. AUROC increased from 0.70 (95 % CI 0.67–0.74), for delirium that developed <2 days, to 0.81 (95 % CI 0.78–0.84), for delirium that developed >6 days.

Patients’ delirium risk for the complete ICU length of stay can be predicted at admission using the E-PRE-DELIRIC model, allowing early preventive interventions aimed to reduce incidence and severity of ICU delirium.

Publication Type: Article
Subjects: R Medicine > RC Internal medicine
Departments: School of Health & Psychological Sciences > Nursing
SWORD Depositor:
[thumbnail of Multinational development and validation of an early prediction model for delirium in ICU patients..pdf]
Text - Published Version
Available under License : See the attached licence file.

Download (511kB) | Preview
[thumbnail of Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License]
Text (Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License) - Other
Download (202kB) | Preview


Add to AnyAdd to TwitterAdd to FacebookAdd to LinkedinAdd to PinterestAdd to Email


Downloads per month over past year

View more statistics

Actions (login required)

Admin Login Admin Login