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Exploring the usefulness of scenario archetypes in science-policy processes: experience across IPBES assessments

Sitas, N., Harmackova, Z. V., Anticamara, J. A., Arneth, A., Badola, R., Biggs, R., Blanchard, R., Brotons, L., Cantele, M., Coetzer, K., DasGupta, R., den Belder, E., Ghosh, S., Guisan, A., Gundimeda, H., Hamann, M., Harrison, P. A., Hashimoto, S., Hauck, J., Klatt, B. J., Kok, K., Krug, R. M., Niamir, A., O'Farrell, P. J., Okayasu, S., Palomo, I., Pereira, L. M. ORCID: 0000-0002-4996-7234, Riordan, P., Santos-Martin, F., Selomane, O., Shin, Y-J. and Valle, M. (2019). Exploring the usefulness of scenario archetypes in science-policy processes: experience across IPBES assessments. Ecology and Society, 24(3), 35.. doi: 10.5751/ES-11039-240335

Abstract

Scenario analyses have been used in multiple science-policy assessments to better understand complex plausible futures. Scenario archetype approaches are based on the fact that many future scenarios have similar underlying storylines, assumptions, and trends in drivers of change, which allows for grouping of scenarios into typologies, or archetypes, facilitating comparisons between a large range of studies. The use of scenario archetypes in environmental assessments foregrounds important policy questions and can be used to codesign interventions tackling future sustainability issues. Recently, scenario archetypes were used in four regional assessments and one ongoing global assessment within the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES). The aim of these assessments was to provide decision makers with policy-relevant knowledge about the state of biodiversity, ecosystems, and the contributions they provide to people. This paper reflects on the usefulness of the scenario archetype approach within science-policy processes, drawing on the experience from the IPBES assessments. Using a thematic analysis of (a) survey data collected from experts involved in the archetype analyses across IPBES assessments, (b) notes from IPBES workshops, and (c) regional assessment chapter texts, we synthesize the benefits, challenges, and frontiers of applying the scenario archetype approach in a science-policy process. Scenario archetypes were perceived to allow syntheses of large amounts of information for scientific, practice-, and policy-related purposes, streamline key messages from multiple scenario studies, and facilitate communication of them to end users. In terms of challenges, they were perceived as subjective in their interpretation, oversimplifying information, having a limited applicability across scales, and concealing contextual information and novel narratives. Finally, our results highlight what methodologies, applications, and frontiers in archetype-based research should be explored in the future. These advances can assist the design of future large-scale sustainability-related assessment processes, aiming to better support decisions and interventions for equitable and sustainable futures.

Publication Type: Article
Additional Information: Copyright © 2019 by the author(s). Published here under license by The Resilience Alliance. This article is under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License. You may share and adapt the work for noncommercial purposes provided the original author and source are credited, you indicate whether any changes were made, and you include a link to the license.
Publisher Keywords: assessment; biodiversity; decision making; ecosystem services; futures; nature; regional; scenarios
Subjects: G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > GF Human ecology. Anthropogeography
H Social Sciences > HM Sociology
Departments: School of Health Sciences > Healthcare Services Research & Management
URI: https://openaccess.city.ac.uk/id/eprint/23158
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