City Research Online

Forward Mortality Rates in Discrete Time II: Longevity Risk and Hedging Strategies

Hunt, A. & Blake, D. ORCID: 0000-0002-2453-2090 (2016). Forward Mortality Rates in Discrete Time II: Longevity Risk and Hedging Strategies (PI-1602). London, UK: Pensions Institute.


Many users of mortality models are interested in using them to place values on longevity-linked liabilities and securities. Modern regulatory regimes require that the values of liabilities and reserves are consistent with market prices (if available), though the gradual emergence of a traded market in longevity risk needs methods for pricing new types of longevity-linked securities quickly and efficiently. In this study, we develop a new forward mortality framework to enable the efficient pricing of longevity-linked liabilities and securities in a market-consistent fashion. This approach starts from the historical data of the observed mortality rates, i.e., the force of mortality. Building on the dynamics of age/period/cohort models of the observed force of mortality, we develop models of forward mortality rates and then use a change of measure to incorporate whatever market information is available. The resulting forward mortality rates are then used to value a number of different longevity-linked securities, such as q-forwards, s-forwards, and longevity swaps.

Publication Type: Monograph (Discussion Paper)
Publisher Keywords: Mortality modelling, age/period/cohort models, forward mortality rates, longevity-linked securities, longevity hedging
Subjects: G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > GF Human ecology. Anthropogeography
H Social Sciences > HF Commerce
Departments: Bayes Business School > Finance
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