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Advancing a toolkit of diverse futures approaches for global environmental assessments

Pereira, L. ORCID: 0000-0002-4996-7234, Kuiper, J., Selomane, O. , Aguiar, A. P. D., Asrar, G., Bennett, E. M., Biggs, R., Calvin, K., Hedden, S., Hsu, A., Jabbour, J., King, N., Köberle, A., Lucas, P., Nel, J., Norstrom, A. V., Peterson, G., Sitas, N., Trisos, C., van Vuuren, D., Vervoort, J. & Ward, J. (2021). Advancing a toolkit of diverse futures approaches for global environmental assessments. Ecosystems and People, 17(1), pp. 191-204. doi: 10.1080/26395916.2021.1901783


Global Environmental Assessments (GEAs) are in a unique position to influence environmental decision-making in the context of sustainability challenges. To do this effectively, however, new methods are needed to respond to the needs of decision-makers for a more integrated, contextualized and goal-seeking evaluation of different policies, geared for action from global to local. While scenarios are an important tool for GEAs to link short-term decisions and medium and long-term consequences, these current information needs cannot be met only through deductive approaches focused on the global level. In this paper, we argue that a more diverse set of futures tools operating at multiple scales are needed to improve GEA scenario development and analysis to meet the information needs of policymakers and other stakeholders better. Based on the literature, we highlight four challenges that GEAs need to be able to address in order to contribute to global environmental decision-making about the future: 1. anticipate unpredictable future conditions; 2. be relevant at multiple scales, 3. include diverse actors, perspectives and contexts; and 4. leverage the imagination to inspire action. We present a toolbox of future-oriented approaches and methods that can be used to effectively address the four challenges currently faced by GEAs.

Publication Type: Article
Additional Information: © 2021 The Author(s). Published by Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Publisher Keywords: Global environmental assessments, scenarios, models, futures, SDGs, SDG17 partnerships to achieve the Goal < UN sustainable development goals
Subjects: G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > GF Human ecology. Anthropogeography
R Medicine > RA Public aspects of medicine
Departments: School of Health & Psychological Sciences > Healthcare Services Research & Management
SWORD Depositor:
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