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Modelling the Trade Balance between the Northern and Southern Eurozone Using an Intertemporal Approach

Boonman, T., Litsios, I., Pilbeam, K. ORCID: 0000-0002-5609-8620 & Pouliot, W. (2022). Modelling the Trade Balance between the Northern and Southern Eurozone Using an Intertemporal Approach. Journal of International Money and Finance, 121, 102508. doi: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2021.102508


We use an intertemporal model to examine the division of the Eurozone areas into countries with persistent trade account surpluses and those with persistent deficits. This is done by examining the trade account balances between a Northern group of countries that are in persistent trade account surplus and a Southern group of countries that have persistent deficits over the period 2001-2018. The theoretical model highlights the interaction of consumption, portfolio optimization between holdings of domestic and foreign bonds, fiscal balances, changes in the demand to hold money balances and changes in the pricing of risk in financial markets as reflected in changes in the interest rate differentials. We test the model using both the ARDL and Fully Modified OLS methodologies and find that it performs well empirically with relevant coefficients being both right signed and significant.

Publication Type: Article
Additional Information: © 2022. This manuscript version is made available under the CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 license
Publisher Keywords: Intertemporal, trade account, Eurozone, ARDL, FM-OLS, GIIPS crisis
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HJ Public Finance
J Political Science > JN Political institutions (Europe)
Departments: School of Policy & Global Affairs > Economics
[img] Text - Accepted Version
This document is not freely accessible until 25 March 2023 due to copyright restrictions.
Available under License Creative Commons Attribution Non-commercial No Derivatives.

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