City Research Online

Abstract

The introduction of the Lee–Carter (LC) method marked a breakthrough in mortality forecasting, providing a simple yet powerful data-driven stochastic approach. The method has the merit of capturing the dynamics of mortality change by a single time index that is almost invariably linear. This thirtieth anniversary review of its 1992 publication examines the LC method and the large body of research that it has since spawned. We first describe the method and present a 30-year ex post evaluation of the original LC forecast for U.S. mortality. We then review the most prominent extensions of the LC method in relation to the limitations that they sought to address. With a focus on the efficacy of the various extensions, we review existing evaluations and comparisons. To conclude, we juxtapose the two main statistical approaches used, discuss further issues, and identify several potential avenues for future research.

Publication Type:	Article
Additional Information:	© 2023. This manuscript version is made available under the CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 license https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HF Commerce H Social Sciences > HM Sociology H Social Sciences > HN Social history and conditions. Social problems. Social reform
Departments:	Bayes Business School > Actuarial Science & Insurance

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