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Equity tail risk and currency risk premiums

Fan, Z., Londono, J. M. & Xiao, X. ORCID: 0000-0002-0564-9795 (2022). Equity tail risk and currency risk premiums. Journal of Financial Economics, 143(1), pp. 484-503. doi: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2021.05.020


We find that an option-based equity tail risk factor is priced in the cross section of currency returns; more exposed currencies offer a low risk premium because they hedge against equity tail risk. A portfolio that buys currencies with high equity tail beta and shorts those with low beta extracts the global component in the tail factor. The estimated price of risk of this novel global factor is consistently negative in currency carry and momentum portfolios, and in portfolios of other asset classes, suggesting that excess returns of these strategies can be partially understood as compensations for global tail risk.

Publication Type: Article
Additional Information: This article is available under the Creative Commons CC-BY-NC-ND license and permits non-commercial use of the work as published, without adaptation or alteration provided the work is fully attributed.
Publisher Keywords: Global tail risk, Option-implied equity tail risk, Currency returns, Carry trade, Currency momentum
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory
H Social Sciences > HG Finance
Departments: Bayes Business School > Finance
SWORD Depositor:
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Available under License Creative Commons Attribution Non-commercial No Derivatives.

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