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Exchange Rates and Sovereign Risk

Della Corte, P., Sarno, L., Schmeling, M. ORCID: 0000-0002-4488-6750 & Wagner, C. (2022). Exchange Rates and Sovereign Risk. Management Science, 68(8), pp. 5591-5617. doi: 10.1287/mnsc.2021.4115


An increase in a country’s sovereign risk, as measured by credit default swap spreads, is accompanied by a contemporaneous depreciation of its currency and an increase of its volatility. The relation between currency excess returns and sovereign risk is mainly driven by default expectations (rather than distress risk premia) and exposure to global sovereign risk shocks and also emerges in a predictive setting for currency risk premia. We show that a sovereign risk factor is priced in the cross-section of currency returns and that it is not subsumed by the carry factor.

Publication Type: Article
Publisher Keywords: Exchange rates, currency risk premium, currency options, sovereign risk, CDS spreads
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HG Finance
Departments: Bayes Business School > Finance
SWORD Depositor:
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