City Research Online

Projection of diabetes morbidity and mortality till 2045 in Indonesia based on risk factors and NCD prevention and control programs

Wahidin, M., Achadi, A., Besral, B. , Kosen, S., Nadjib, M., Nurwahyuni, A., Ronoatmodjo, S., Rahajeng, E., Pane, M. & Kusuma, D. ORCID: 0000-0002-1909-9341 (2024). Projection of diabetes morbidity and mortality till 2045 in Indonesia based on risk factors and NCD prevention and control programs. Scientific Reports, 14(1), article number 5424. doi: 10.1038/s41598-024-54563-2


Diabetes Mellitus is one of the biggest health problems in Indonesia but the research on the disease’s projection is still limited. This study aimed to make a projection model of prevalence and mortality of diabetes in Indonesia based on risk factors and NCD programs. The study was a quantitative non-experimental study through multiple linear regression models and system dynamics. The baseline projection was created by 2018 data and projections until 2045 involved the dynamization of risk factors and programs, population, and case fatality rate. The model was created from 205 districts data. This study used secondary data from Basic Health Research, BPJS Kesehatan, NCD programs, and Ministry of Health. The prevalence of diabetes in Indonesia is estimated to increase from 9.19% in 2020 (18.69 million cases) to 16.09% in 2045 (40.7 million cases). The prevalence will be lower to 15.68% (39.6 million) if interventions of programs were carried out, and to 9.22% (23.2 million) if the programs were added with prevention of risk factors. The projected number of deaths due to diabetes increases from 433,752 in 2020 to 944,468 in 2045. Deaths due to stroke among diabetes increases from 52,397 to 114,092 in the same period. Deaths from IHD among diabetes increase from 35,351 to 76,974, and deaths from chronic kidney disease among diabetes increase from 29,061 to 63,279. Diabetes prevalence and mortality in Indonesia rise significantly in Indonesia and can be reduced by intervention of several programs and risk factors. This study findings could be source of planning and evaluation of Diabetes prevention and control program at national and provincial level in the future related to risk factors control and program development.

Publication Type: Article
Additional Information: This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit
Subjects: G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > GF Human ecology. Anthropogeography
H Social Sciences > HN Social history and conditions. Social problems. Social reform
R Medicine > RC Internal medicine
Departments: School of Health & Psychological Sciences
School of Health & Psychological Sciences > Healthcare Services Research & Management
SWORD Depositor:
[thumbnail of s41598-024-54563-2.pdf]
Text - Published Version
Available under License Creative Commons: Attribution International Public License 4.0.

Download (1MB) | Preview


Add to AnyAdd to TwitterAdd to FacebookAdd to LinkedinAdd to PinterestAdd to Email


Downloads per month over past year

View more statistics

Actions (login required)

Admin Login Admin Login