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Abstract

This paper examines the transformation of outer space governance amidst the intensifying Sino-American rivalry and the broader erosion of the liberal international order. For decades, the 1967 Outer Space Treaty (OST) provided a stable normative framework. However, rapid technological advancements and shifting geopolitical tides have rendered this traditional order increasingly fragile. This study distinguishes between strategic competition and systemic rivalry, arguing that the contemporary landscape is defined by a profound struggle over the norms and rules that will govern future celestial activity. Central to this analysis is the emergence of competing governance blocs – specifically the US-led Artemis Accords and the China-Russia International Lunar Research Station – which threaten to fragment space policy into exclusive spheres of influence. This geopolitical tension is compounded by the rise of “New Space,” characterized by a shift from state-led missions to a complex, multi-actor ecosystem dominated by commercial mega-constellations. Despite these challenges, the paper contends that rivalry does not preclude cooperation. By drawing parallels to the Cold War, the study identifies areas for potential collaboration and argues that while the foundational principles of the OST remain vital, they must be augmented by a new international space regime that prioritizes pragmatic deconfliction and technical interoperability.

Publication Type:	Report
Additional Information:	© The British Academy and Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. This is an open access publication licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 4.0 Unported License
Subjects:	J Political Science > JA Political science (General) J Political Science > JZ International relations
Departments:	School of Policy & Global Affairs School of Policy & Global Affairs > Department of International Politics
SWORD Depositor:	Symplectic Administrator

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