City Research Online

Abstract

Stock return predictability by investor sentiment has been subject to constant updating, but reaching a decisive conclusion seems rather challenging as academic research relies heavily on US data. We provide fresh evidence on stock return predictability in an international setting and show that shipping investor sentiment is a common leading indicator for financial markets. We establish out-of-sample predictability and demonstrate that investor sentiment is also economically significant in providing utility gains to a mean-variance investor. Finally, we find evidence that the predictive power of sentiment works best when negative forecasts are also taken into account.

Publication Type:	Article
Additional Information:	© 2016, Elsevier. Licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
Publisher Keywords:	Shipping investor sentiment; Stock return predictability; Out-of-sample forecast performance
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HF Commerce
Departments:	Bayes Business School > Actuarial Science & Insurance Bayes Business School > Finance
SWORD Depositor:	Symplectic Administrator

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