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The Myth of Methuselah and the Uncertainty of Death: The Mortality Fan Charts

Dowd, K., Blake, D. & Cairns, A. J. G. (2016). The Myth of Methuselah and the Uncertainty of Death: The Mortality Fan Charts. Risks, 4(3), article number 21. doi: 10.3390/risks4030021


This paper uses mortality fan charts to illustrate prospective future male mortality. These fan charts show both the most likely path of male mortality and the bands of uncertainty surrounding that path. The fan charts are based on a model of male mortality that is known to provide a good fit to UK mortality data. The fan charts suggest that there are clear limits to longevity—that future mortality rates are very uncertain and tend to become more uncertain the further ahead the forecast—and that forecasts of future mortality uncertainty must also take account of uncertainty in the parameters of the underlying mortality model.

Publication Type: Article
Publisher Keywords: mortality; fan charts; longevity risk; parameter risk
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor > HD61 Risk Management
H Social Sciences > HN Social history and conditions. Social problems. Social reform
Departments: Bayes Business School > Finance
SWORD Depositor:
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