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Estimation of NAIRU with In ation Expectation Data

Cui, W., Härdle, W.K. & Wang, W. (2016). Estimation of NAIRU with In ation Expectation Data (16/05). London, UK: Department of Economics, City, Univeristy of London.


Estimating natural rate of unemployment (NAIRU) is important for understanding the joint dynamics of unemployment, inflation, and inflation expectation. However, existing literature falls short of endogenizing inflation expectation together with NAIRU in a model consistent way. We estimate a structural model with forward and backward looking Phillips curve. Inflation expectation is treated as a function of state variables and we use survey data as its noisy observations. Surprisingly, we find that the estimated NAIRU tracks unemployment rate closely, except for the high inflation period (late 1970s). Compared to the estimation without using the survey data, the estimated Bayesian credible sets are narrower and our model leads to better inflation and unemployment forecasts. These results suggest that monetary policy was very effective and there was not much room for policy improvement.

Publication Type: Monograph (Discussion Paper)
Additional Information: Copyright 2016 the authors
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor
Departments: School of Arts & Social Sciences > Economics
School of Arts & Social Sciences > Economics > Discussion Paper Series
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