City Research Online

Abstract

In 2010, a housing purchase restriction policy was announced by China’s central government and implemented gradually by several prefecture governments. In this article, we empirically investigate this policy’s effect on the housing market. Using a difference-in-difference framework, we show that the housing purchase restriction policy reduces housing prices and transaction amounts but does not influence the housing investment or construction markets. Moreover, upstream industry suffers more than downstream industry. The results are robust to a battery of robustness checks. Heterogeneity exists across cities. We find that first- and second-tier cities as well as highly urbanized cities experience great declines in housing prices after the policy’s implementation, especially cites that had high housing prices in 2010 and cities with high real estate investment as a proportion of fixed asset investment. However, the housing policy is less effective in curbing speculative demand.

Publication Type:	Article
Additional Information:	This is an Accepted Manuscript of an article published by Taylor & Francis in 'Applied Economics' on 06 July 2017, available online: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00036846.2017.1340569.
Publisher Keywords:	Housing purchase restriction policy, difference-in-difference, housing market, Chin
Subjects:	D History General and Old World > DS Asia H Social Sciences > HG Finance H Social Sciences > HT Communities. Classes. Races
Departments:	Bayes Business School > Finance
SWORD Depositor:	Symplectic Administrator

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