City Research Online

Abstract

State pension systems are usually pay-as-you-go financed, i.e. current contributions cover pension expenditure. However, some countries combine funding and pay-as-you-go (PAYG) elements within the first pillar. The aim of this paper is twofold. First, using nonlinear optimisation based on Godínez-Olivares, Boado-Penas, and Haberman (2016), it seeks to assess the impact of a compulsory funded defined contribution (DC) pension scheme that complements the traditional defined benefit (DB) PAYG on the level of pension benefits. Future expected returns for both the funded part and the buffer fund of the PAYG are simulated through the non-overlapping block bootstrap technique. Second, in the case of a partial financial sustainability, we design different optimal strategies, that involve variables such as the contribution rate, age of retirement and indexation of pensions, to restore the long-term financial equilibrium of the system. We show that the adjustments needed to ensure sustainability for the mixed pension systems are less severe that the pure DB PAYG but the total replacement rate for the former is lower in most of the cases studied. When calculating the return that the individuals would receive, we prove that some cohorts are better off under a mixed pension system.

Publication Type:	Article
Additional Information:	This is an Accepted Manuscript of an article published by Taylor & Francis in European Journal of Finance, available online: https://doi.org/10.1080/1351847X.2019.1647260.
Publisher Keywords:	Investment allocation, Optimisation, Pay-as-you-go, Public pensions, Risk, Simulation, Sustainability
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HG Finance
Departments:	Bayes Business School > Actuarial Science & Insurance
SWORD Depositor:	Symplectic Administrator

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