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How to improve parameter estimates in GLM-based fMRI data analysis: cross-validated Bayesian model averaging

Soch, J., Meyer, A. P., Haynes, J-D. & Allefeld, C. ORCID: 0000-0002-1037-2735 (2017). How to improve parameter estimates in GLM-based fMRI data analysis: cross-validated Bayesian model averaging. Neuroimage, 158, pp. 186-195. doi: 10.1016/j.neuroimage.2017.06.056


In functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI), model quality of general linear models (GLMs) for first-level analysis is rarely assessed. In recent work (Soch et al., 2016: “How to avoid mismodelling in GLM-based fMRI data analysis: cross-validated Bayesian model selection”, NeuroImage, vol. 141, pp. 469–489;, we have introduced cross-validated Bayesian model selection (cvBMS) to infer the best model for a group of subjects and use it to guide second-level analysis. While this is the optimal approach given that the same GLM has to be used for all subjects, there is a much more efficient procedure when model selection only addresses nuisance variables and regressors of interest are included in all candidate models. In this work, we propose cross-validated Bayesian model averaging (cvBMA) to improve parameter estimates for these regressors of interest by combining information from all models using their posterior probabilities. This is particularly useful as different models can lead to different conclusions regarding experimental effects and the most complex model is not necessarily the best choice. We find that cvBMS can prevent not detecting established effects and that cvBMA can be more sensitive to experimental effects than just using even the best model in each subject or the model which is best in a group of subjects.

Publication Type: Article
Additional Information: © Elsevier 2017. This manuscript version is made available under the CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 license
Publisher Keywords: fMRI-based neuroimaging; mass-univariate GLM; nuisance variables; correlated regressors; cross-validation; Bayesian model averaging
Subjects: R Medicine > RC Internal medicine > RC0321 Neuroscience. Biological psychiatry. Neuropsychiatry
Departments: School of Health & Psychological Sciences > Psychology
Text - Accepted Version
Available under License Creative Commons Attribution Non-commercial No Derivatives.

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