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Perspectives on Correctness in Probabilistic Inference from Psychology

Pothos, E. M. ORCID: 0000-0003-1919-387X, Basieva, I., Khrennikov, A. and Yearsley, J. ORCID: 0000-0003-4604-1839 (2019). Perspectives on Correctness in Probabilistic Inference from Psychology. The Spanish Journal of Psychology, 22, e55. doi: 10.1017/sjp.2019.48

Abstract

Research into decision making has enabled us to appreciate that the notion of correctness is multifaceted. Different normative framework for correctness can lead to different insights about correct behavior. We illustrate the shifts for correctness insights with two tasks, the Wason selection task and the conjunction fallacy task; these tasks have had key roles in the development of logical reasoning and decision making research respectively. The Wason selection task arguably has played an important part in the transition from understanding correctness using classical logic to classical probability theory (and information theory). The conjunction fallacy has enabled a similar shift from baseline classical probability theory to quantum probability. The focus of this overview is the latter, as it represents a novel way for understanding probabilistic inference in psychology. We conclude with some of the current challenges concerning the application of quantum probability theory in psychology in general and specifically for the problem of understanding correctness in decision making.

Publication Type: Article
Additional Information: This article has been published in a revised form in [Journal] https://doi.org/10.1017/sjp.2019.48. This version is published under a Creative Commons CC-BY-NC-ND. No commercial re-distribution or re-use allowed. Derivative works cannot be distributed. © copyright holder.
Publisher Keywords: conjunction fallacy, decision making, quantum theory
Subjects: B Philosophy. Psychology. Religion > BF Psychology
Q Science > QC Physics
Departments: School of Arts & Social Sciences > Psychology
Date Deposited: 30 Mar 2020 14:27
URI: https://openaccess.city.ac.uk/id/eprint/23852
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