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Generalised joint regression for count data with a focus on modelling football matches

van der Wurp, H., Groll, A., Kneib, T., Marra, G. and Radice, R. ORCID: 0000-0002-6316-3961 (2020). Generalised joint regression for count data with a focus on modelling football matches. Statistics and Computing, 30, pp. 1419-1432. doi: 10.1007/s11222-020-09953-7

Abstract

We propose a versatile joint regression framework for count responses. The method is implemented in the R add-on package GJRM and allows for modelling linear and non-linear dependence through the use of several copulae. Moreover, the parameters of the marginal distributions of the count responses and of the copula can be specified as flexible functions of covariates. Motivated by a football application, we also discuss an extension which forces the regression coefficients of the marginal (linear) predictors to be equal via a suitable penalisation. Model fitting is based on a trust region algorithm which estimates simultaneously all the parameters of the joint models. We investigate the proposal’s empirical performance in two simulation studies, the first one designed for arbitrary count data, the other one reflecting football-specific settings. Finally, the method is applied to FIFA World Cup data, showing its competitiveness to the standard approach with regard to predictive performance.

Publication Type: Article
Additional Information: Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
Publisher Keywords: Count data regression, FIFA World Cups, Football, Joint modelling, Regularization
Subjects: G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > GV Recreation Leisure
H Social Sciences > HA Statistics
H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor
Departments: Business School > Actuarial Science & Insurance
Date Deposited: 22 Jun 2020 11:15
URI: https://openaccess.city.ac.uk/id/eprint/24369
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