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Enhanced Performance Gaussian Process Regression for Probabilistic Short-term Solar Output Forecast

Najibi, F. ORCID: 0000-0002-2866-623X, Apostolopoulou, D. ORCID: 0000-0002-9012-9910 & Alonso, E. ORCID: 0000-0002-3306-695X (2021). Enhanced Performance Gaussian Process Regression for Probabilistic Short-term Solar Output Forecast. International Journal of Electrical Power and Energy Systems, 130(106916), article number 106916. doi: 10.1016/j.ijepes.2021.106916


With increasing concerns of climate change, renewable resources such as photovoltaic (PV) have gained popularity as a means of energy generation. The smooth integration of such resources in power system operations is enabled by accurate forecasting mechanisms that address their inherent intermittency and variability. This paper proposes a probabilistic framework to predict short-term PV output taking into account the uncertainty of weather. To this end, we make use of datasets that comprise of power output and meteorological data such as irradiance, temperature, zenith, and azimuth. First, we categorise the data into four groups based on solar output and time by using k-means clustering. Next, a correlation study is performed to choose the weather features which affect solar output to a greater extent. Finally, we determine a function that relates the aforementioned selected features with solar output by using Gaussian Process Regression and Matern 5/2 as a kernel function. We validate our method with five solar generation plants in different locations and compare the results with existing methodologies. More specifically, in order to test the proposed model, two different methods are used: (i) a 5-fold cross validation; and (ii) holding out 30 random days as test data. To confirm the model accuracy, we apply our framework 30 independent times on each of the four clusters. The average error follows a normal distribution, and with 95% confidence level, it takes values between −1.6% to 1.4%.

Publication Type: Article
Additional Information: © 2021. This manuscript version is made available under the CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 license
Publisher Keywords: Short-term forecasting, photovoltaic, Gaussian Processes Regression, k-means, feature selection
Subjects: T Technology > TK Electrical engineering. Electronics Nuclear engineering
Departments: School of Science & Technology > Computer Science
School of Science & Technology > Engineering
SWORD Depositor:
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Text - Accepted Version
Available under License Creative Commons Attribution Non-commercial No Derivatives.

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