City Research Online

When an Educated Guess Beats Data Analysis

Acar, O. A. ORCID: 0000-0003-1993-0921 and West, D. (2021). When an Educated Guess Beats Data Analysis. Harvard Business Review,


Research on data provided by 122 companies in the advertising, digital, publishing, and software sectors (industries characterized by uncertainty over outcomes) suggests that data driven decision-making could be counter-productive under conditions of uncertainty. Heuristics and gut feelings often offered a better tradeoff in terms of decision-making speed and accuracy; the inclusion of analysis in the decision-making process did not bring about any meaningful improvement in accuracy while significantly reducing speed.

Publication Type: Article
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor
Departments: Bayes Business School > Management
Date available in CRO: 07 Jun 2021 08:33
Date deposited: 7 June 2021
Date of acceptance: 4 June 2021
Date of first online publication: 4 June 2021
[img] Text - Published Version
This document is not freely accessible due to copyright restrictions.



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