City Research Online

Abstract

In this note we present some stylised facts about the Covid-19 epidemic in the UK using daily time-series data published by Public Health England and the UK Department of Health and Social Care. We model the data on confirmed new cases using standard count-data models estimated at the country and national levels using a fixed rolling window to capture changes in the model parameters over time. We then use the most recent estimated models to carry out a simple realtime forecasting exercise aimed at predicting the date when the number of confirmed new cases will be approximately zero.

Publication Type:	Monograph (Working Paper)
Subjects:	D History General and Old World > DA Great Britain H Social Sciences > HN Social history and conditions. Social problems. Social reform Q Science > QR Microbiology > QR355 Virology R Medicine > RA Public aspects of medicine > RA0421 Public health. Hygiene. Preventive Medicine
Departments:	School of Policy & Global Affairs > Economics

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