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The Covid-19 epidemic in the UK

Faggio, G. ORCID: 0000-0001-9766-859X & Peracchi, F. (2020). The Covid-19 epidemic in the UK (10.1101/2020.06.19.20135517). .


In this note we present some stylised facts about the Covid-19 epidemic in the UK using daily time-series data published by Public Health England and the UK Department of Health and Social Care. We model the data on confirmed new cases using standard count-data models estimated at the country and national levels using a fixed rolling window to capture changes in the model parameters over time. We then use the most recent estimated models to carry out a simple realtime forecasting exercise aimed at predicting the date when the number of confirmed new cases will be approximately zero.

Publication Type: Monograph (Working Paper)
Subjects: D History General and Old World > DA Great Britain
H Social Sciences > HN Social history and conditions. Social problems. Social reform
Q Science > QR Microbiology > QR355 Virology
R Medicine > RA Public aspects of medicine > RA0421 Public health. Hygiene. Preventive Medicine
Departments: School of Policy & Global Affairs > Economics
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