City Research Online

Abstract

The choice of a copula model from limited data is a hard but important task. Motivated by the visual patterns that different copula models produce in smoothed density heatmaps, we consider copula model selection as an image recognition problem. We extract image features from heatmaps using the pre-trained AlexNet, and present workflows for model selection that combine image features with statistical information. We employ dimension reduction via Principal Component and Linear Discriminant Analyses, and use a Support Vector Machine classifier. Simulation studies show that the use of image data improves the accuracy of the copula model selection task, particularly in scenarios where sample sizes and correlations are low. This finding indicates that transfer learning can support statistical procedures of model selection

Publication Type:	Monograph (Working Paper)
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HG Finance
Departments:	Bayes Business School > Actuarial Science & Insurance

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