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COVID-19 and the commercial real estate market in Ireland

Gerard, K., Killeen, N., Skouralis, A. ORCID: 0000-0003-0835-1457 , Velasco, S. & Wosser, M. (2021). COVID-19 and the commercial real estate market in Ireland. Financial Stability Notes, 2021, 4.


This Note documents developments in the commercial real estate (CRE) market in Ireland since the onset of the COVID-19 shock as well as examining the factors determining the outlook. The CRE market is important to monitor from a financial stability perspective owing to its size and systemic interlinkages to both the real economy and the wider financial system. We show that the CRE market in Ireland has experienced a downward adjustment in valuations since the onset of the COVID-19 shock with the retail sector particularly affected. We highlight that components of the CRE market such as the retail and office sectors are particularly vulnerable to both near-term and structural implications of the COVID-19 shock such as the rise of online shopping and increased working from home practices. We combine a range of analytical approaches including forecast modelling techniques, the extension of the growth-at-risk framework to CRE and scenario analysis to assess the potential downside risks to the CRE market in Ireland.

Publication Type: Article
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor
H Social Sciences > HG Finance
H Social Sciences > HN Social history and conditions. Social problems. Social reform
Q Science > QR Microbiology > QR180 Immunology
R Medicine > RA Public aspects of medicine > RA0421 Public health. Hygiene. Preventive Medicine
Departments: Bayes Business School > Finance
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