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Firm Life Cycle, Expectation Errors and Future Stock Returns

Konstantinidi, T. ORCID: 0000-0002-4531-7728 (2022). Firm Life Cycle, Expectation Errors and Future Stock Returns. Journal of Banking and Finance, 143, 106591. doi: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2022.106591

Abstract

I study the return predictability of firm life cycle, originally documented by Dickinson (2011). I show that a hedge portfolio strategy going long on mature firms and short on introduction firms generates a significant hedge portfolio return of 1.29% per month in return-weighted portfolios and 0.72% in value-weighted portfolios. The returns to firm life cycle are related to investors’ and analysts’ expectation errors, are driven by market-wide investor sentiment, and are more pronounced among stocks with low institutional ownership and high idiosyncratic volatility. Quantile regressions show that introduction firms have considerably greater uncertainty and skewness in future earnings growth outcomes than mature firms, such that analysts are better able to justify optimistically biased forecasts for introduction firms compared to mature firms.

Publication Type: Article
Additional Information: © 2022. This manuscript version is made available under the CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 license https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
Publisher Keywords: Firm life cycle, Stock returns, Expectation errors, Limits to arbitrage
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor
H Social Sciences > HG Finance
Departments: Bayes Business School > Finance
[img] Text - Accepted Version
This document is not freely accessible until 28 January 2024 due to copyright restrictions.
Available under License Creative Commons Attribution Non-commercial No Derivatives.

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