City Research Online

Abstract

Cues Consultant Psychiatrists use to estimate the probability of future violence were obtained through postal survey. The ten most popular were taken as a basis for data collection. One hundred patient risk assessment reports done by Kent Forensic Psychiatry Service staff were checked in a retrospective file study for these cues. Note was also made of the report writer’s risk conclusion at the time (i.e. low or high), and a search carried out on the Police National Computer to determine if the patients concerned had subsequently offended violently or not. There were 46% assessed as high risk, and 54% considered low risk. Over the follow up period (29 - 76 months) 12 had offended violently while 88 had not. Assessors’ decisions could be predicted at a better than chance rate by using one cue in a non-compensatory model (the matching heuristic) or two cues in a compensatory model such as the logistic regression approach. These two showed little change in accuracy by comparison with a logistic regression model using all ten cues (i.e. 62%, 60% and 60% respectively). There was greater variability when attempting to forecast outcome (i.e. 72%, 88% and 88% respectively). Implications for clinical practice will be discussed.

Publication Type:	Thesis (Doctoral)
Subjects:	B Philosophy. Psychology. Religion > BF Psychology
Departments:	School of Health & Psychological Sciences > Psychology School of Health & Psychological Sciences > School of Health & Psychological Sciences Doctoral Theses Doctoral Theses

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