City Research Online

Abstract

Telematics boxes integrated into vehicles are instrumental in capturing driving data encompassing behavioral and contextual information, including speed, distance travelled by road type, and time of day. These data can be amalgamated with drivers' individual attributes and reported accident occurrences to their respective insurance providers. Our study analyzes a substantial sample size of 19,214 individual drivers over a span of 55 weeks, covering a cumulative distance of 181.4 million kilometers driven. Utilizing this dataset, we develop predictive models for weekly accident frequency. As anticipated based on prior research with yearly data, our findings affirm that behavioral traits, such as instances of excessive speed, and contextual data pertaining to road type and time of day significantly aid in ratemaking design. The predictive models enable the creation of driving scores and personalized warnings, presenting a potential to enhance traffic safety by alerting drivers to perilous conditions. Our discussion delves into the construction of multiplicative scores derived from Poisson regression, contrasting them with additive scores resulting from a linear probability model approach, which offer greater communicability. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the inclusion of lagged behavioral and contextual factors not only enhances prediction accuracy but also lays the foundation for a diverse range of usage-based insurance schemes for weekly payments.

Publication Type:	Article
Additional Information:	This article is available under the Creative Commons CC-BY-NC-ND license and permits non-commercial use of the work as published, without adaptation or alteration provided the work is fully attributed.
Publisher Keywords:	Motor insurance, Near-miss, Traffic accident, Highway, Speed
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HG Finance
Departments:	Bayes Business School Bayes Business School > Actuarial Science & Insurance
SWORD Depositor:	Symplectic Administrator

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