City Research Online

Abstract

We propose a simple model for accelerated deaths that draws on the observation that many of those who died from Covid-19 were often, but not always, much less healthy than the average for their age group; further, the vast majority who died were over the age of 50. The model predicts that, in the absence of additional secondary effects, the impact on the life expectancy of survivors (the anti-selection effect) will be very small, and that the degree of impact depends on the average years of life lost by those who die from Covid-19. The philosophy underpinning the model is supported by reference to both all-cause mortality by age and all-cause mortality by socio-economic deprivation group. In combination, these support a proportionality link between Covid-19 mortality and individual frailty or death rates. The Accelerated Deaths Model is consistent with the mortality experience associated with respiratory diseases over the period 2013-15 and with past seasonal influenza epidemics.

Publication Type:	Article
Additional Information:	© 202 5 European Society of Medicine. This is an open - access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
Publisher Keywords:	Covid-19, all-cause mortality, frailty, co-morbidities, deprivation, Accelerated Deaths Model, Proportionality Hypothesis, anti-selection
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HA Statistics R Medicine > RA Public aspects of medicine > RA0421 Public health. Hygiene. Preventive Medicine
Departments:	Bayes Business School Bayes Business School > Finance
SWORD Depositor:	Symplectic Administrator

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