City Research Online

Abstract

It is well known that more advantaged socio-economic groups – whether defined by educational attainment, occupation, income or area deprivation – have lower mortality rates and longer lives than less advantaged socio-economic groups. In many cases, affluent subpopulations also experience faster rates of improvement in mortality. Socio-economic differentials in mortality and longevity pose important challenges when designing public policies for tackling social inequalities; and for managing longevity risk in pension funds and annuity portfolios. The successful addressing of these social and financial challenges requires the best possible understanding of the drivers of socio-economic mortality differentials. A key step in achieving this understanding is to investigate how mortality trends for leading causes of death differ between socio-economic groups. Accordingly, the main purpose of this paper is to propose modelling techniques that enable the modelling and projection of mortality trends by cause of death and socio-economic stratification. We first extend the Lee-Carter model to allow for the consideration of coding changes in cause-specific mortality data. We then embed this model into a multiple population setting to allow for the quantification of socio-economic differences in cause-specific mortality. Using England mortality data for socio-economic subpopulations defined using the Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD), we show that this modelling approach can be satisfactorily employed both in the assessment of the magnitude of historical mortality differentials for the main causes of death and in the projection of the possible future evolution of these differentials.

Publication Type:	Article
Additional Information:	This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this licence, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.
Publisher Keywords:	Mortality modelling, Multipopulation models, Socio-economic circumstances, Causes of death, Lee-Carter model
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HG Finance
Departments:	Bayes Business School Bayes Business School > Actuarial Science & Insurance
SWORD Depositor:	Symplectic Administrator

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