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Abstract

Introduction
The German party system has become increasingly unstable as the “politics of centrality” that was associated with the old Federal Republic has succumbed to a new “politics of fluidity”. The subsequent process of political fragmentation has seen the emergence of populist challenger parties of right and left. The article focuses on the more significant strand of right-wing populism represented by the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) but also considers the persistence of left populism in elements of the Linke and the recent breakaway Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW).

Methods
The article uses mixed methods to explain modern German populism in comparative and historical perspective, and looking at demand and supply side factors, with a focus on party-based populism.

Results
The article demonstrates that Germany's populist challengers have a strong impact on party competition but face significant systemic biases that limit their impact on government formation at the state level and certainly at the Federal level.

Discussion
The article concludes that ceteris paribus the possibility of a right-wing populist government at the national level in Germany is smaller than in European democracies with more majoritarian electoral and party systems such as France. Nevertheless, the emergence of Germany's populist disruptors presents a systemic challenge, not least because of the dangers of over-reaction from Germany's political and legal establishment to the rise of the AfD in particular.

Publication Type:	Article
Additional Information:	Copyright © 2025 Lees. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) and the copyright owner(s) are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
Publisher Keywords:	populism, AfD, BSW, fragmentation, polarization
Subjects:	J Political Science > JA Political science (General)
Departments:	School of Policy & Global Affairs
SWORD Depositor:	Symplectic Administrator

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