City Research Online

Abstract

The technological state that exists within a socio-economic system (’black-box') can be represented by its efficiency on input-output conversions. Any real improvement in technological state means also an increase in conversion efficiencies. These changes are the results of the total behaviour of a complex socio-techno-economic process rather than being just a technical change within the economic system.
The concept of efficiency is used to build a vector based model from which an analytical model of technological change is developed. International cross-sectional data are used to develop indicators of time-dependent efficiency components, technological gaps between countries, and speeds of development.
An important part of this research is the identification of socio-techno-economic characteristics appropriate to the study of dynamics of technological change. The 'black-box' contains a very complex structure of variables and parameters interacting with each other. A holistic approach must be used to analyze the processes of technological change, its direction, speed of change, and other characteristics. Normally this would entail opening up the 'black-box' and studying all these parameters individually. However, a method of dimensional reduction by factor analysis is preferred. The result is a representative, comprehensive, and much simplified model of a complex system. This model can then be used for analysis in order to make a simulation-based forecast of the direction and magnitude of techno-economic development. The model can then serve decision makers as a methodological tool and as an aid to decision-making and policy planning.
The research uses an international data sample collected from 100 developed and developing countries over the period I960 to 1977. The necessary socio-techno-economic indicators are developed from this data. The indicators define the dimensions of a multidimensional space in which the efficiencies of the techno system can be mapped as they vary with time. The relationships between technological, labour and energy conversion efficiencies are derived, and it is shown that technological improvement is a major drive in socio-economic development.
It is demonstrated that:

1. The data reduction method developed produces a powerful and valid technique for forming an analytical model of techno- economic change of any finite dimensionality.
2. The resulting model provides a useful tool with which to study the dynamics of technological change that result from inter-acting technical, economic, energy and labour factors.
3. The model provides a powerful aid to policy planners considering development strategy or science policy.

Publication Type:	Thesis (Doctoral)
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HA Statistics H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA76 Computer software T Technology > TA Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General)
Departments:	School of Science & Technology > School of Science & Technology Doctoral Theses Doctoral Theses

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