City Research Online

Abstract

Fine-grained mortality forecasting has gained momentum in actuarial research due to its ability to capture localized, short-term fluctuations in death rates. This paper introduces MortFCNet, a deep-learning method that predicts weekly death rates using region-specific weather inputs. Unlike traditional Serfling-based methods and gradient-boosting models that rely on predefined fixed Fourier terms and manual feature engineering, MortFCNet automatically learns patterns from raw time-series data without needing explicitly defined Fourier terms or manual feature engineering. Extensive experiments across over 200 NUTS-3 regions in France, Italy, and Switzerland demonstrate that MortFCNet consistently outperforms both a standard Serfling-type baseline and XGBoost in terms of predictive accuracy. Our ablation studies further confirm its ability to uncover complex relationships in the data without feature engineering. Moreover, this work underscores a new perspective on exploring deep learning for advancing fine-grained mortality forecasting.

Publication Type:	Article
Publisher Keywords:	deep learning, fine-grained, mortality forecasting, multiple populations, XGBoost
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HA Statistics Q Science > QA Mathematics
Departments:	Bayes Business School Bayes Business School > Faculty of Actuarial Science & Insurance
SWORD Depositor:	Symplectic Administrator

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