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Abstract

Offshore wind renewable energy systems require substantial amounts of critical metals such as copper, zinc, and lead. The extent to which the displacement of fossil fuel-based energy offsets the environmental costs associated with increased material demand remains insufficiently quantified. This study introduces a net impact classification model to systematically assess whether the deployment of copper, zinc, and lead in offshore wind systems is environmentally justified. The method calculates category-specific displacement ratios using life cycle assessments. These ratios classify environmental justification into three tiers: detrimental, where the ratio is less than one; marginal, where the ratio is between one and two; and beneficial, where the ratio is greater than two. Detrimental categories indicate that the material impact cannot be offset by the environmental benefits of fossil displacement. Marginal categories show partial offset, and beneficial categories represent full environmental justification. Applied to copper, zinc, and lead in offshore wind systems, the classification shows that climate impacts achieve strong justification, with a displacement ratio of 21.5 for global warming potential. Eight other categories, including freshwater ecotoxicity (0.10) and mineral scarcity (0.44), remain unjustified despite complete fossil displacement. To validate this classification method’s robustness, Monte Carlo analysis was conducted. The analysis confirmed that these tier assignments are statistically robust, with 72% classification stability and 78% of categories showing clear justification outcomes. The net impact classification was further used to analyze how changes in material supply chain parameters and material intensity within offshore wind components affect net impacts. Detrimental categories showed amplified net reductions, marginal categories dampened responses, and beneficial categories limited improvement.

Publication Type:	Conference or Workshop Item (Paper)
Additional Information:	Copyright © 2026, IEEE. This is the accepted manuscript of an article published by IEEE. Please refer to the publisher’s terms and conditions for information on re-use.
Publisher Keywords:	Materials, Wind, Renewable energy sources, Gases, Printing, Equations, Sensitivity, Climate, Copper, Meteorology
Subjects:	T Technology > TA Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General)
Departments:	School of Science & Technology School of Science & Technology > Department of Engineering
SWORD Depositor:	Symplectic Administrator

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