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Abstract

This paper presents the application of the advanced probabilistic slope stability model with precipitation effects developed to assess the performance of small homogeneous earthfill embankment dam slopes, when exposed to future seasonal precipitation scenarios. Here, the UK's latest probabilistic climate model known as UKCP09 is applied. To reflect the critical conditions conducive to slope failure, a benchmark has been developed to identify the change, if any, in the risk classification of the slope's performance level due to precipitation. Thus, enabling the reassessment of the dam's risk classification, as categorised by the Flood and Water Management Act 2010. Such an approach could therefore be well placed to support and enhance the decision-making process, its impact on the public, especially in relation to future climate effects.

Publication Type:	Article
Additional Information:	This is an Accepted Manuscript of an article published by Taylor & Francis in Civil Engineering and Environmental Systems on 21 May 2014, available online: http://wwww.tandfonline.com/10.1080/10286608.2014.912639
Publisher Keywords:	climate change, failure classification, precipitation, risk, slope instability
Subjects:	Q Science > QC Physics T Technology > TA Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General)
Departments:	School of Science & Technology > Engineering

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